EXPORTS FOR JULY DECLINE 14.8%; TRADE DEFICIT AT USD 15.5 b

India’s exports for July declined almost 15 percent on a Y/Y basis to USD 22.4 b on slowdown in demand abroad. Shipment of goods came in at USD 26.3 b.

The country also reduced its imports by 7.6 percent to USD 37.9 b on a y/y basis.

Hence, trade deficit came in at USD 15.5 b.

For the April-Jul period or 1Q12-13, exports declined 5 percent to USD 80.4 b and imports declined 6.47 percent to USD 153.2 b, leaving a trade deficit of USD 72 b. (Moneycontrol)

CHINA’S EXPORTS FOR JULY DECLINE 1%, BELOW ESTIMATES; IMPORTS RISE 4.7% (y/y)

China’s saw declining growth in exports and imports for July on concerns of a slowing economy. The data saw exports decline 1 percent on a y.y basis for July vs exp. 8 percent rise vs rise of 11.3 percent in June. Meanwhile imports rose 4.7 percent vs exp. 7 percent rise vs 6.3 percent increase in June.

The trade surplus came in at USD 25.1 b vs USD 31.5 b a year ago vs exp. USD 35.1 b.

New loans made available in RMB denominated loans came in at RMB 540.1 b (USD 85 b), which was lower than estimates of RMB 918 b. (Bloomberg)

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 1 AUGUST 2012

The markets ended on a flat note today on lack of global and domestic news. IT and Metal stocks saw pressure from sellers, while other declining exports and other PMI data caused investors to exercise caution today.

India’s exports declined 5.5 percent to USD 25.1 b in June with imports falling to USD 35.4 b, leading to a trade deficit of USD 10.3 b. The HSBC PMI data for China and India came out and both nations saw declining data, with India suffering its biggest month-on-month drop in the PMI. Elsewhere, European PMI data from Italy, France, Germany, U.K and the European Union all declined for the month of July, most notable the UK PMI. On the economic front, we have a lot of data coming from the US, with the ISM Manufacturing Index, its Non farm employment change data. But the biggest of them all is the U.S Federal Reserve’s decision on the interest rates followed by the FOMC’s statements. Could see the markets to remain choppy to end flat either sides. This, combined with ECB’s interest rate decision could lay the path for this week.

Asian markets declined, generally on China’s lower PMI data. Europe is mixed but marginally higher ahead of the Fed’s meet.

Coming back to the Indian markets, the Sensex closed at 17257.38, up 21 points (0.12%) on highs of 17291.99 and a low of 17189.16 points today. The Nifty closed 11.50 points higher at 5240.50 points on highs 5246.30 and a low of 5212.65 today.

On sectoral indices on the BSE, the Healthcare Index rose 1.32 percent, the Capital Goods Index rose 0.95 percent and Power Index gained 0.91 percent. The Metal Index declined 0.66 percent, the Oil & Gas Index was lower by 0.58 percent and the IT Index declined 0.40 percent.

On the stock front, Cipla rose 4.4 percent in trade on better than expected results. Reliance, L&T, Infosys and HUL rose between 0.4 – 0.8 percent. Tata Motors rose 0.6  percent after its sales for July rose 15 percent y.y to 74,159 units. Reliance overtook ONGC to become the most valued co. on market capitalization. Adani Power declined on lower results.

Kindly check the Market Summary tab for further information on stock-related data.

(Economic Times, Business Standard, CNBC and Moneycontrol)

SOUTH KOREA 2Q12 GDP AT 2.4% vs exp 2.5% vs prv 0.4%

South Korea’s 2Q12 GDP growth rose 2.4 percent vs 0.4 percent on a y/y basis. Expectations came in at a growth of 2.5 percent. Slowdown in exports  on account of Europe and US economies experiencing slowing growth hampered South Korean trade. Further asset purchases and easing programmes would be conducted by the government. (Bloomberg)

EURO INFLATION UNCHANGED AT 2.4% IN JUNE

Eurozone Core Consumer Price Inflation data came in unchanged at 1.6 percent on a y/y basis.

On a m/m basis, inflation stayed at 2.4 percent for June, unchanged over May’s rate, which came in line with expectations.

Imports in the Euro region declined 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis over April and exports rose 0.3 percent in May. (Bloomberg)

INDIA’S JUNE TRADE DEFICIT (Y/Y) AT USD 10.3 b vs USD 14.4 b

According to the Commerce Secretary, India’s trade data came in as follows:

June exports down 5.5 % y/y at USD 25.06 b.

Imports down 13.5% y/y  basis at USD 35.3 b

Trade deficit at USD 10.3 b vs USD 14.4 b on a y/y basis.

Rupee at 55.59  to the dollar, down 0.63 percent.

(CNBC TV 18)

EQUITY UPDATE – 11 JULY 2012

GEO-POLITICAL

Iran’s oil output for June came in at 3.2 m barrels, leading to record 20-yr low output. Sanctions imposed on the country have adversely impacted its output. (Financial Times)

ASIA

China’s trade surplus rose of USD 31.7 b in June, nearly twice as that in May. Exports increased 11.3 percent on a y/y basis  but was lower than May’s number by 15.3 percent. Imports increased 6.3 percent on a y/y basis and 12.7 percent on a m/m basis. Lower imports would be a cause of concern for investors as a slowdown in the Chinese economy could further dent global recovery. (Financial Times)

Superior Aviation Beijing – Co. is in talks to acquire  airplane manufacturer Hawker Beechcraft for around USD 1.79 b. (Financial Times)

INDIA

Non-resident Indian, or Indians living abroad infused a total of USD 4.753 b in Indian banks in the form of deposits during the April – May 2012 period. The amount was almost 7 times in excess of the amount invested a year ago for the same period. The weakening rupee and India’s high domestic interest rates contributed to the inflow. (Economic Times)

Direct tax collections incl. refunds rose 47.2 percent to INR 84,273 cr for the April-June 2012 period vs INR 57,267 cr a year ago.  (Business Standard)

Renault India – Co. launched its brand Renault Duster in Kerala and aims to sell a total of 30,000 vehicles of the brand in India by 2012. The co. is also keen on introducing smaller cars costing below INR 450,000. (Economic Times)

FII’s were net buyers in today’s trade at INR 606.54 cr on gross purchases of INR 2170.26 cr and gross sales at INR 1563.72 cr. Domestic institutional investors were net sellers at INR 488.33 cr. They made gross purchases of INR 830.16 cr and sold INR 1318.49 cr in trade. (Business Standard)

Vehicle sales in India for the June 2012 period  rose by 8.2 percent under tough market conditions. Sales totaled 155,763 units with domestic ca sales at 143,851 units. Maruti Suzuki led the sales by recording a 23 percent m/m rise at 70,977 units.  Tata Motors saw a decline in sales of around 26 percent at 13,595 units vs 18,522 units in the previous month. (Economic Times)

Automobile industry body Society of Indian Automobiles Manufacturers (SIAM) stated that forecasts for March 2013 would be lower than expected on higher costs,  slower economic expansion and fuel prices affecting consumers. The body also stated that demand would revive by the second half of the year.  Rise in excise duty also pushed up vehicle prices. (Economic Times)

Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC): Co. plans to invest a total of INR 25,000 cr with INR 13,704 cr outlined for two gas transmission projects.  The firm is also in talks to acquire a 65 percent stake in BG Group for INR 2500 cr. (Business Standard)

EUROPE

UK trade manufacturing data for May exceeded expectations of median forecasts, which was taken as a positive signal in today’s trade. Factory output rose 1.2 percent in May vs -0.8 percent in April. Median forecasts came in at a decline of 0.1 percent. (Bloomberg)

Italian Industrial Output data rose 0.8 percent in may vs a fall of 1.9 percent in April. (Bloomberg)

NORTH AMERICA

Job openings in the US rose by 195,000 to touch 3.64 m for May vs a 294,000 decline in April. Hiring picked up marginally as co.’s expanded sales and operations at a moderate pace while layoffs also increased. Employment rose by 148,000 to 4.36 m in May, driving the hiring rate to 3.3 percent vs 3.2 percent in April. Layoffs, excl. retirements rose  to 1.89 m in May vs 1.74 m in April. (Bloomberg)

The National Federation of Independent Business’s index of investor confidence in the US declined to 91.4 from 94.4 for May 2012 period. (Bloomberg)

ASIAN ECONOMIES WILL DETERIORATE IN 2HY12 : NOMURA

According to Nomura, Asian economies will slowdown in the 2HY12 period on lower demand from domestic and overseas traders. China, however, could buck the trend on effects of monetary easing and fiscal policies taking effects.

Exports to traditional markets such as Europe and America would continue to experience weakness owing to the ongoing crisis. Firms will also reduce investments, which is widely noticeable in Taiwan and South Korea.

India will also be vulnerable in the coming future on the effects of the crisis hitting the nation. It slashed its growth estimate for FY13 to 5.8 percent from 6.7 percent.

Singapore and South Korea are expected to see expansion in their GDP by 2.7 percent in FY12 period.

(CNBC)

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 14 JUNE 2012

The Sensex 30 and Nifty 50 tanked in trade on inflation, Europe, and global cues.  The Sensex closed at 16677.88, down 202.63 points (-1.20%).  The Index touched an intraday high of 16,921.49 and a low of 16,765.36 points in trade today. The Nifty Index ended at 5054.75, down 66.70 points (-1.30 %) with an intraday high of 5130.00 and a low of 5082.45 in trade. The Nifty closed below its 200 daily moving average of 5070.  It is expected to range between 4800 – 5300 by market participants.

Inflation data was awaited and it came higher over the previous reading along with a higher core inflation number but lower than expectations. Rate sensitive companies declined in trade as hopes of a cut in the interest rates so anticipated by the markets fell on rising inflation. The RBI would now look to balance growth vs rising inflation.  On concerns of slowdown in growth, it may seem that the central bank would cut interest rates inspite of rising inflation.

Exports for May 2012 declined by 4.16 percent (y/y)to USD 25.7 b according to government sources, on a provisional basis. Imports declined 7.36 percent  (y/y) to USD 41.9 b leaving a trade deficit of USD 16.3 b. Deficit in April was USD 13.9 b.  Greece and Spain, and Europe in general will always be watched for the next major outlook on the markets.

Asian markets closed in the negative on concerns about Italy and Europe in general. The indices declined by 1 percent on average.  European indices also declined in trade as Spanish bond yields hit 7 percent.

Commodities dip with WTI at USD 82.48 down 0.17% and Brent trading at USD 96.96 down 0.18%. On the weather front, severe storms are expected over Omaha, Nebraska, Sioux Falls, South Dakota, and the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota.

Kindly check the Market Summary tab for further information on stock-related data.

(Bloomberg, Moneycontrol, Economic Times)